QUESTION OF THE DAY   Vote: How does Hamas's electoral success change prospects for Middle East peace? advertisement  TODAY'S MOST POPULAR • Bush Plays Down Bailout for Car Makers • GM Posts Massive Loss for Year • The Roberts-Alito Court • Stocks Motor Higher • Chipotle Mexican Grill's IPO Sizzles WINNERS AND LOSERS   The landslide Hamas victory in the Palestinian parliamentary election leaves some well-known names out of the legislature and brings in equally prominent people. WINNERS: • Ismail Haniyeh, a relative moderate in Hamas, leads the Islamic movement's list in the new parliament.   • Mohammed Abu Teir, second on the Hamas list, is known for his orange-tinted, bushy beard. He campaigned hard in the West Bank, preaching in mosques and addressing street gatherings.   • Mohammed Dahlan, Fatah strongman in Gaza under Yasser Arafat, resisted the Hamas wave in the strip and won a seat from the southern city of Khan Younis.   • Salam Fayyad, brought in as finance minister from the International Monetary Fund to give the corruption-ridden Palestinian Authority a cleaner image, won a seat in parliament for the first time as head of a small, independent party.   • Marwan Barghouti, the imprisoned Fatah uprising leader, will be a member of the new parliament, though Israel refuses to release him.   LOSERS: • Jibril Rajoub, once Arafat's security chief in the West Bank, ran in the Hebron district, where Hamas swept the election.   • Ahmed Qureia, the Palestinian prime minister, decided not to run for parliament at all on the assumption he would be named prime minister again after the election.   • Kadoura Fares, a young Fatah leader close to Barghouti, lost his re-election bid.   • Samir Mashharawi, Fatah leader in northern Gaza, which was swept by Hamas.   Source: AP Personalized Home Page Setup Put headlines on your homepage about the companies, industries and topics that interest you most.

Hamas Victory Roils Middle East Peace Process

The surprisingly strong victory of militant group Hamas in Palestinian legislative elections leaves the Palestinian Authority in the hands of a radical Islamist leadership deemed terrorists by Israel, the U.S. and Europe, further complicating the already tortuous Middle East peace process.

How Hamas chooses to lead the Palestinians could reshape the Middle East political landscape in ways not seen since Israel began its occupation of the West Bank and Gaza in 1967. Hamas officials said they are committed to pursuing the government and economic reforms promised during the campaign -- pledges that helped secure their victory over the long-ruling Fatah movement, widely viewed as corrupt and inept. Other than confirming their refusal to acknowledge Israel's right to exist, they have yet to indicate the approach their government will take in foreign policy.

Yet, in an early sign of pragmatism, Mahmoud Zahar, a top Hamas official, said the group would extend its year-old truce -- agreed before Israel's withdrawal from Gaza -- if Israel reciprocates. "Don't be afraid," added another senior Hamas official, Ismail Hanyyeh, in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp.

Israel, the U.S. and the European Union will have to decide how much support, if any, to offer a Palestinian government that has come to depend heavily on Western aid, but that will be led by a group they have always shunned. The early signs suggested a hard line.

Acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday convened his top security officials to discuss the results. Late in the day, his office issued a statement saying: "The State of Israel will not negotiate with a Palestinian administration if its members include an armed terrorist organization that calls for the destruction of the State of Israel. In any case, Israel will continue to fight terrorism with a heavy hand, everywhere."

The Hamas victory carries a particularly ironic sting for President Bush, who made Palestinian elections a cornerstone of plans to encourage democracy in the Middle East. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal the day of the elections, Mr. Bush reiterated that he wouldn't deal with Hamas as long as it espouses the destruction of Israel. Yet, while Mr. Bush and European leaders yesterday urged Hamas to renounce violence, they stopped short of withdrawing support for a Hamas-led government.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said of the victory: "Hamas has a clear responsibility to understand that with democracy goes a rejection of violence."

WALL STREET JOURNAL VIDEO

 

President Bush fields questions about the Hamas Islamist party in a news conference. And WSJ political editor John Harwood discusses the significance of Bush's comments on Hamas and the Abramoff investigation.

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Watch an Associated Press report on the elections.

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Pressure on Hamas to embrace diplomacy came from Arab leaders, too. Ahmed Nazif, Egypt's prime minister, said Hamas would have to respect "the reality of what the world has set as the framework for peace in the Middle East." That framework encompasses prospective negotiations aimed at Palestinian recognition of Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state.

Acceptance of those goals would mark a profound change for a group formed in the 1980s with the stated aim of destroying Israel and replacing it with an Islamic state. Once a fringe organization, Hamas's popularity soared in the past decade as dissatisfaction with President Yasser Arafat and corrupt Fatah officials deepened. When Mr. Arafat died in November 2004, his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, called new elections. Hamas saw a chance to test its popularity -- and gain real political power.

It was a good bet. Hamas's election victory underscored the extent of dissatisfaction with Fatah -- a theme President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice emphasized in comments yesterday. "It's a wakeup call to the leadership," Mr. Bush said, referring to the Palestinian Authority. "Obviously people were not happy with the status quo." (See related article.)

Despite exit polls Wednesday suggesting that Fatah would retain its majority, Hamas ended up with a strong legislative majority, securing 76 seats out of 132. Fatah finished second with 43 seats. The rest were taken by a handful of independent parties. About one million voters cast ballots, or nearly 78% of those eligible. Some isolated cases of violence and illegal campaign activity were reported, but voting was deemed free and fair by local and international observers, including former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

News of Hamas's victory sparked frenzied celebrations among supporters in the West Bank and Gaza. Many took to the streets waving the green flags of Hamas and chanting slogans of support. In one instance, Hamas supporters tried to raise their flag over the legislative building in Ramallah. A Fatah supporter pulled it down, and it was trampled.

BUSH TRANSCRIPT

 

Read an edited transcript of the interview with President Bush.

Hamas leaders had expected a strong showing, but before the election, they tended to speak of assuming an opposition role in the new government. Allowing Fatah officials to retain overall control, they said, would allow Hamas to deliver on its pledge to reduce corruption and improve government services while not endangering the nearly $1 billion in annual aid the Palestinian Authority receives from foreign governments.

Without that money, the Palestinian Authority would be unable to pay its estimated 140,000 civil servants and would likely cease functioning within months. Nearly half of those civil servants are in the security forces, most of them with ties to Fatah and access to weapons -- a potentially explosive mix if relations between the two groups should sour.

"Hamas from the beginning feared winning too big," said Shalom Harari, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence official. "They made it clear that they wanted to use Fatah as their outside cover."

As the ruling party, the group still may choose to move cautiously, some observers said, tapping independent cabinet ministers with experience dealing effectively with Israel and the international community, according to observers. And Mr. Abbas, a Fatah member, will remain as president, the highest-profile position in the Palestinian government.

According to some Hamas members and other people familiar with the political situation, Hamas may consider appointing Salam Fayyad as prime minister. A former International Monetary Fund executive, Mr. Fayyad won a seat in the vote as a member of the Third Way party and until recently was finance minister. He earned a doctorate in the U.S. and is well-liked by Western leaders for his aggressive efforts to reform the government's opaque financial system.

As prime minister, Mr. Fayyad might also oversee the finance portfolio. Hamas could also strike a deal with Mohammad Dahlan, another veteran Fatah official once trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, to take the job of interior minister. That position is especially sensitive for Israel and the West because it handles all security issues for the Palestinian government -- including dealing with militants.

But regardless of who ends up in the Hamas-formed government, the U.S. and Europe, as well as Israel, will have problems working with a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority. The Bush administration has sketched out how Hamas must change to be seen as legitimate: renounce terror, accept Israel's right to exist, endorse an eventual two-state solution, and lay down its arms.

The EU, along with Russia and the United Nations, endorsed a similar list of demands last year. As sponsors of the now dormant "road map" peace plan, the so-called Quartet, which also includes the U.S., also stipulated that any future Palestinian cabinet not include any members of organizations that refuse to recognize Israel or renounce violence.

Write to Karby Leggett at karby.leggett@wsj.com and Neil King Jr. at neil.king@wsj.com

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